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Potencijalni učinci Britanije odlaze u EU na britanskom BDP-u

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David CameronUK gross domestic product (GDP) could be 2.2% lower in 2030 if Britain leaves the EU and fails to strike a deal with the EU or “reverts” into protectionism.

To je jedno od glavnih otkrića sveobuhvatnog novog izvješća Otvorene Europe, uglednog think tanka sa sjedištem u Velikoj Britaniji.

It says that in a “best case” scenario, under which the UK manages to enter into liberal trade arrangements with the EU and the rest of the world, whilst pursuing “large-scale” deregulation at home, Britain could be better off by 1.6% of GDP in 2030.

However, a “far more realistic” range, it says, is between a 0.8% permanent loss to GDP in 2030 and a 0.6% permanent gain in GDP in 2030, in scenarios where Britain “mixes” policy approaches.

 

UK Premier David Cameron has committed to holding an “in-out” referendum on Europe in 2017 if the Tories win May’s General Election.

 

Oglas

He hopes to take the steam out of those, such as UKIP, arguing for withdrawal, or “Brexit” as it has become known, by  “renegotiating” the terms of Britain’s EU membership.

 

U svojoj studiji Otvorena Europa koja zagovara reformu EU-a za razliku od povlačenja, prvenstveno se osvrnula na ekonomski učinak izlaska Britanije iz EU-a.

 

However, given that Brexit comes down to a “finely balanced calculation”, it says “unquantifiable considerations such as lost sovereignty and democratic accountability may be what in the end determines whether Britain remains a member”.

Open Europe’s study draws on detailed economic modeling, showing that the economic impact of Brexit may “not be as clear cut” in either direction as most previous analyses have suggested.

 

Instead, it will depend on a number of “tough” decisions in the UK and Europe.

 

The report, published on Monday, says, “This includes whether the EU itself will embrace reform and British politicians and voters are willing to accept ambitious deregulation and new levels of competition through expansion of free trade.”

 

Na temelju ekonomskog modeliranja utjecaja Brexita na trgovinu i analize najznačajnijih dijelova propisa EU-a, ako Britanija napusti EU 1. 2018. XNUMX., Otvorena Europa procjenjuje da će 2030. godine:

• U najgorem slučaju, kada Velika Britanija ne uspije postići trgovinski sporazum s ostatkom EU-a i ne slijedi program slobodne trgovine, bruto domaći proizvod (BDP) bio bi 2.2% niži nego da je Velika Britanija ostala unutar EU.

 

  • U najboljem slučaju, kada Velika Britanija zaključi Sporazum o slobodnoj trgovini (FTA) s EU, provodi vrlo ambicioznu deregulaciju svog gospodarstva i otvara se gotovo u potpunosti za trgovinu s ostatkom svijeta, BDP Velike Britanije bio bi 1.6% veći od da je ostalo unutar EU.

 

“However,” it cautions, “these are outliers.”

 

The report goes on, “The more realistic range is between a 0.8% permanent loss to GDP in 2030 – where the UK strikes a comprehensive trade deal with the EU but does nothing else; and a 0.6% permanent gain in GDP in 2030 – where it pursues free trade with the rest of the world and deregulation, in addition to an EU FTA.”

 

“In none of our scenarios would the cost of leaving the single market and the EU customs union be off-set by merely striking a new trade deal with the EU. Britain will only prosper outside the EU if it is prepared to use its new found freedom to undertake active steps towards trade liberalisation and deregulation. It faces a series of difficult choices.”

 

The report concludes by saying that “given the difficulty in leaving the EU and the extent of the political and economic challenges the UK would need to overcome to make Brexit work in its long-term interests, it would be foolhardy to leave without first testing the limits of EU reform.”

 

It says that limiting the areas of EU interference and further market liberalisation would be the “most beneficial” option for both the UK and the EU.

 

Comment came from Open  Europe’s chairman Lord Leach who said, “Brexit is unlikely to be the cataclysmic event some have claimed.

 

“However, transforming Britain into the deregulated, free trading economy it would need to become outside the EU sounds easy in theory, but in practice could come up against some serious political resistance within the UK itself.

 

“The worst scenario is if the UK leaves the EU and then pursues protectionist policies.”

"Ako Velika Britanija uloži toliko truda u reformu EU koliko bi trebala da bi uspjela od Brexita, i Ujedinjenom Kraljevstvu i EU bilo bi bolje."

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