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Izjava Europske komisije i Europske središnje banke sljedeći zaključak drugom post-programa nadzora misije u Irskoj

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euroStaff teams from the European Commission and European Central Bank (ECB) visited Ireland to carry out the second post-programme surveillance (PPS) mission on 17-21 November. This was co-ordinated with the IMF’s second post-programme monitoring (PPM) mission. The European Stability Mechanism also participated in the meetings on aspects related to its Early Warning System.

Gospodarska situacija se u Irskoj i dalje poboljšava od završetka programa financijske pomoći EU / MMF-a, s proširivanjem oporavka. Gospodarski rast snažno je porastao u prvoj polovici 2014-a, pri čemu su se nacionalni računi pomirili s prethodnim pozitivnim protokom visokofrekventnih pokazatelja, posebno na tržištu rada. Iako se izvoz u prvoj polovici ove godine znatno oporavio, još uvijek postoji određena neizvjesnost je li ta snaga održiva. Širenje oporavka odražava se i u potvrđivanju postupnog jačanja privatne potrošnje i u širenju ulaganja. Nedavni protok visokofrekventnih podataka pogoduje gospodarskoj aktivnosti u drugoj polovici ove godine. Na tržištu stanova, rastuća potražnja i niska razina nove gradnje brzo su potakli cijene, posebno u Dublinu. Općenito, predviđa se rast realnog BDP-a od 4.6% i 3.6% za 2014 i 2015. Glavni rizici kratkoročne prognoze povezani su sa slabljenjem gospodarskog zamaha u eurozoni i održivosti visokog rasta izvoza.

Latest indications are that the general government deficit in 2014 is likely to turn out slightly above the authorities’ most recent budgetary forecast of 3.7% of GDP, which is well within the original ceiling of 5.1%, and down from 5.7% of GDP in 2013. The improvement reflects several factors, notably the stronger than expected economic recovery, higher revenues from  central bank profits, some expenditure restraint and the upward revision of GDP alongside the new national accounting  methodology (ESA 2010). Still, overruns in the healthcare sector increased compared to last year. The deficit is expected to fall below 3%-of-GDP by next year. More ambitious deficit targets for 2015 and 2016 would help to bring the still very high government debt-to-GDP ratio firmly on a downward path. The government needs to stand ready to adopt additional measures to address potential future fiscal risks.

Uvjeti financiranja znatno su se poboljšali. (…) Važno je u potpunosti iskoristiti trenutno vrlo povoljne uvjete financiranja kako bi se vratili u normalno financijsko okruženje.

The Irish domestic banks’ performance continues to advance with rising profitability. With the results of the ECB’s comprehensive assessment published, the remaining restructuring, recapitalisation and disposal of the State’s holding in the three main domestic banks can now be further advanced. (…) In the current low interest rate environment, the transmission of low funding rates to the real economy is key to sustain economic growth and create jobs. Government initiatives to boost SME financing are welcome but will need to be carefully evaluated, particularly in the context of weak demand from small businesses for funding. Structural reforms are progressing at varying rates. Reforms to further education and training are now advancing apace, even though it will take time before the new institutional setup and programmes are entirely effective in addressing skills mismatches. The implementation of the Job Path programme should provide additional activation support to the long-term unemployed starting in the second half of 2015. Key strands of reforms in healthcare are progressing, but further advances will be necessary to reap additional efficiency gains and better control health expenditure without compromising healthcare delivery. Enactment of the Legal Services Regulation Bill will not take place as planned in 2014 and the establishment of multidisciplinary practices faces increased uncertainty.

Zaključno, unatoč značajnom napretku, proces makroekonomske prilagodbe treba se nastaviti i ostati važni izazovi. Nezaposlenost - posebno dugotrajna i nezaposlenost mladih - i dalje je visoka. Razduživanje javnog i privatnog duga napreduje, ali prekomjerni dug ostaje značajan izazov za gospodarstvo, te zahtijeva održivu fiskalnu konsolidaciju i financijski popravak. Oporavak bankarskog sektora je i dalje u tijeku.

Sljedeća misija PPS održat će se na proljeće 2015.

Oglas

Misija želi zahvaliti irskim vlastima i MMF-u na konstruktivnim i transparentnim razgovorima.

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